Section 1: Employment trends

Areas of future demand  

Future employment demand is calculated on the basis of the additional job openings in an industry plus the replacement demand from retirement, migration, job mobility or turnover. Future growth is measured both in terms of the growth in overall numbers of people and the proportion of employment growth in relation to the current numbers employed in the particular occupational group.

Business and Economic Research Ltd (BERL) has predicted that future employment growth will be weak in construction, agriculture, forestry and fi shing, and communication services. In turn, export-related industries such as tourism, transport, wholesale trade and elements of manufacturing are expected to experience moderate employment growth. Within the manufacturing sector, BERL projects a contrast in employment growth between the relatively fast-growing machinery and equipment sector and the slower-growing primary product processing (food and wood) industries5.

Skill levels  

The highest level of forecast growth demand by 2013 is in the highest-skilled areas of employment. The skilled occupational group is predicted to have low growth by 2013 and the semi-skilled occupational group is projected to have almost no growth. The elementary skills group, including operators and labourers, is forecast to grow by around four percent per annum by 2013.

Table 2: Future demand growth in the occupations grouped by skill level
DoL estimates & forecasts
Occupations Expansion demand
2008-13 (average growth)		 Replacement demand
2013 (estimated at)		 Total demand
2013
Highly skilled 3.6% 2.1% 5.7%
Skilled -0.8% 2.0% 1.2%
Semi-skilled -2.0% 2.8% 0.8%
Elementary 2.1% 2.3% 4.4%
Total – for all occupations 0.6% 2.4% 3.0%
Source: DOL Presentation to the ITF Research Forum, April 2009.

Within the highest-skilled occupations, administrators, managers and professionals will see significant levels of growth by 2018. The skilled occupational groups of technicians and associate professionals are predicted to have a low level of growth, with some areas such as trades having no growth at all. Within the semiskilled occupational group, clerks are forecast to have virtually no growth demand in 2018. The two other semi-skilled occupational groups, service and sales workers and agriculture and fi shery workers, are both forecast to grow by only about one percent over that time. The elementary skills group, including operators and labourers, is forecast to grow by only 0.9 percent by 20186.

Table 3: 2018 demand growth by skill group
Skill group 2008
Employed		 2008
Employed
% share		 2008–18
Demand
growth		 2008–18 Demand
Growth as % of
2008 employed
Highly skilled - administrators, managers & professionals 649,978 30% 19,788 3.0%
Skilled - technicians & associate professionals 259,699 12% 6,410 2.5%
Skilled - trades workers 221,505 10% -66 0.0%
Semi-skilled - clerks, agricultural workers, others 746,093 35% 5,507 0.7%
Elementary skills - operators, building workers & labourers 275,575 13% 2,526 0.9%
Total 2,152,850 100% 34,165 1.6%
Source: Department of Labour (DoL) employment estimates and forecasts, June 2009

Pacific peoples

Currently, Pacific peoples are significantly over-represented in the lowest-skilled occupational groups and in skill groups with low future demand. For example, Pacific men have a very high representation in the semi-skilled occupational group consisting of workers in clerical positions in offi ces, in retail services and in agriculture (8.2 percent compared with 4.6 percent over all industries). Pacific women have a high representation in the trades occupational group, which will have one of the lowest growth rates of the semi-skilled occupational groups. Conversely Pacific peoples are under-represented in the more highly skilled occupational groups.

Occupational groups  

According to Department of Labour projections, the top ten occupational groups in terms of growth in employment demand by 2018 will be:

Specialist managers is the largest group in terms of the number of people employed (over 10 percent), and also has a relatively high employment demand growth (over seven percent) during the ten-year period to 2018. The housekeeping and restaurant services workers group has a high 2018 forecast employment demand growth (about six percent over the ten years) as a result of the very high turnover or replacement rate. Salespersons and demonstrators also have a high replacement demand, which off sets a forecast slight contraction in the size of this occupation within the wider labour market.

Business professionals, personal care workers and the group of writers, artists, entertainment and sports associate professionals, all have very high forecast growth demand in 2018 as a percentage of the number employed in 2008. This is mainly due to expansion in employment but also replacement needs.

Pacific peoples

The table below sets out Pacific peoples’ current employment in relation to the top ten occupational groups.

Table 4: Pacific peoples' representation in top ten occupations
Occupational Group 2018 Employment demand
as % 2008 employed		 Current
Pacific total % share		 Pacific
female		 Pacific
male
Specialised managers 7.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.1%
Housekeeping and restaurant services workers 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 5.1%
Business professionals 8.7% 2.3% 2.6% 1.9%
Finance and sales associate professionals 5.1% 4.9% 6.4% 3.3%
Personal care workers 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% 8.2%
Salespersons and demonstrators 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5%
Library, mail and related clerks 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 5.2%
Computing professionals 10.4% 2.2% 3.3% 1.8%
Nursing and midwifery professionals 8.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.6%
Writers, artists, entertainment and sports associate professionals 8.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.6%
Source: Statistics New Zealand Census of Populations and Dwellings, 2006 and Department of Labour (DoL) employment estimates and forecasts, June 2009

The occupations in which Pacifi c peoples are most highly represented are all occupations with relatively low employment demand growth. Most of them are doing little more than staying stable, which means that the replacement demand off sets the reduction in the overall numbers employed in these occupations.

Of the ten occupations with the highest future demand growth, there are only three in which Pacifi c peoples are represented more highly than their overall average of 4.5 percent. These are housekeeping and restaurant service workers, fi nance, sales and associate professionals, and personal care workers. Future high demand is important in terms of secure employment opportunities and usually higher pay. However, this is not always the case. The high employment demand for housekeeping and restaurant service workers in particular and also to some extent for personal care workers is driven by a very high turnover or replacement rate. Although there will be high future growth in these two areas, they are relatively low skilled, insecure and lower paid. Appendix 1 has more information about occupational groups.

Industries or sectors  

There are five main industries or sectors:

Over half of all people in the labour force are employed in the services sector. This sector is also expected to have the highest rate of forecast growth in demand in the period to 2018. The primary sector (which makes up only eight percent of the total employed) is also expected to realise a modest level of forecast growth in demand (about 1.7 percent on average). The remaining sectors are forecast to experience only very little demand growth. The total forecast growth in demand across the manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade sectors has only a four percent share of the total growth in demand while these sectors make up 38 percent of the workforce in 2008. Appendix 1 has further information about growth demand by industry group.

Within the services sector, business services is the largest industry group (over 250,000 employed) and also has a relatively high percentage rate (about four percent) of forecast demand growth. The highest forecast rate of growth in demand within the services sector is in the health-care and social-assistance industry group (about five percent – see Appendix 1). While only making up about eight percent of the workforce in 2008, this group has a 23 percent share of the overall forecast growth in demand. This is consistent with the ageing of the New Zealand population which will be rapidly increasing over the next ten years. The largest occupation within this industry group is personal-care workers. The share of the industry taken by this group is forecast to grow, and the occupation has a very high rate of forecast growth in demand. It is also an industry in which Pacific peoples are very highly represented but most frequently in low-skilled, low-paid and insecure positions.

The education sector has a slight forecast contraction over the 2008–18 period due to demographic shifts. Much of the low growth in this service sector is driven by the small retraction in the total number of teachers across the education sector expected by 2018. Pacific peoples are slightly under-represented in the primary and early-childhood teaching professional occupation, and significantly under-represented in the secondary and tertiary teaching professional occupation.

While teaching overall is not forecast to be a high growth area, there is likely to be high demand for Pacific teachers and principals due to the increasing proportion of Pacific children in the New Zealand population, particularly in Auckland. The presence of more Pacific teachers and principals may also help to raise the performance of schools for Pacific students.

Pacific peoples

Pacific peoples are under-represented in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining) which is projected to experience modest (less than two percent) growth. The industries in which Pacific peoples are over-represented such as manufacturing, construction and trade sectors, will experience only moderate to low growth (less than 0.5 percent). While Pacific peoples are well represented in the overall services industry where higher-demand growth (between three and four percent) is anticipated, they are under-represented in the highest-demand parts of that industry, such as the business services sector and the most skilled within this sector which are the business professionals. Table 5 below sets out Pacific peoples’ current representation in the five industry groups with highest future growth in demand.

Table 5: Pacific peoples’representation in top five industries of employment growth
Industry group Pacific total share Pacific female share Pacific male share
Primary: agriculture, forestry and fishing 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%
Services: business services 3.6% 4.1% 3.2%
Services: health care and social assistance 4.4% 4.4% 4.5%
Services: arts and recreation services 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
Other services 3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
Source: Statistics New Zealand Census of Populations and Dwellings, 2006 and Department of Labour (DoL) employment estimates and forecasts, June 2009

Regional patterns  

The occupational group with the largest forecast growth in demand (professionals) is concentrated in Wellington (about 23 percent), and to a lesser extent in Auckland (about 19 percent) and makes up the highly skilled occupational group. Auckland and Wellington also have a slightly greater representation of two other groups with significant forecast demand growth – legislators, administrators and managers who are also categorised as highly skilled, and technicians and associate professionals classified as skilled.

The group with the largest amount of forecast growth in demand from 2008 to 18 – business services – has a high representation (between 15 and 16 percent) in Auckland and Wellington. The occupations with the highest share of growth – health care and social assistance, arts and recreational services, and other services, are represented across New Zealand.

Pacific peoples

Of all Pacific peoples in employment, 65 percent live in the Auckland region. A further 25 percent live in the Wellington region. Only five percent of Pacific peoples who are employed live in the Canterbury region compared with 14 percent of the total population. There is also a significantly lower representation of Pacific peoples in the regions that do not contain a major city.

As a result, the forecast demand for those occupations and industries which have a major presence in Auckland, and to a lesser extent in Wellington, are particularly important for Pacific peoples.

Demand for qualifications7  

There are medium to long-term skill shortages in many areas of advanced trade, technical and professional employment. While there tends to be an oversupply of people with certificate-level qualifications in these areas, there tends to be an undersupply at degree level and above.

Table 6 below summarises the findings for different fields of study. It shows whether the trend in the number of graduates decreased, remained the same or increased, and then shows if graduate numbers entering the workforce were less than, equal to or greater than the net number of vacancies in related occupations. The shaded boxes indicate the fields and levels where the number of graduates has fallen short of the estimated demand resulting from occupational growth and retirements.

Table 6: Summary of trends and supply and demand across fi elds of study (2002 – 2006)
    Level 4 certificate Diploma Bachelors/honours Masters/doctorate
Information technology Graduates   arrow 5 arrow 5 arrow 3
Supply-demand   double arrow 12 arrow 12 arrow 6
Engineering and related
technologies		 Graduates arrow 1arrow 1 arrow 3 arrow 3 arrow 3
Supply-demand arrow 6 double arrow 6 arrow 6 arrow 6
Architecture Graduates   arrow 3 arrow 3 arrow 3
Supply-demand   arrow 6 arrow 6 double arrow 6
Building Graduates arrow 1 arrow 3 arrow 3  
Supply-demand arrow 6 double arrow 6 double arrow 3 9  
Medical studies Graduates     arrow 3 arrow 3
Supply-demand     double arrow 3 9 double arrow 6
Nursing Graduates arrow 3 arrow 3 arrow 3  
Supply-demand arrow 6 double arrow 3 9 double arrow 3 9  
Other health Graduates arrow 1 arrow 3 arrow 1  
Supply-demand double arrow 12 arrow 12 arrow 12  
Accountancy Graduates     arrow 3  
Supply-demand     arrow 6  
Finance and sales Graduates   arrow 3 arrow 3  
Supply-demand   double arrow 3 9 double arrow 12  
Human and welfare
studies and services		 Graduates   arrow 1 arrow 1  
Supply-demand   arrow 12 arrow 12  
Behavioural science Graduates     arrow 3  
Supply-demand     arrow 12  
Law Graduates     arrow 3  
Supply-demand     arrow 12  
Food and hospitality Graduates     arrow 1  
Supply-demand     arrow 12  

The areas in which there is consistent evidence of a shortage of graduates are engineering and related technologies, and architecture and building. A closer examination of the engineering and technology area revealed particular shortages in civil engineering and across industrial, manufacturing and mechanical engineering and technology.

There is consistent evidence of an ongoing shortage of graduates at bachelor's level and above, with a particular unmet demand at diploma level (engineering technicians). The downturn in construction and manufacturing will reduce demand for these qualifications in the short term, but demand is likely to continue to increase in the medium to long term.

Table 7: Supply and demand estimates for engineering and related technologies (2002 – 2006)8
  Supply Demand Supply-Demand
  No. of graduates Occupational growth Retirement Total No. % of employed
Level 4 certificate 15,170 5,210 11,300 16,510 -1,330 -2
Diploma 2,310 2,160 3,980 6,150 -3,840 -11
Bachelors/honours 4,530 3,500 1,610 5,105 -570 -3
Masters/doctorate 1,000 780 390 1,160 -160 -3
See appendix 2 for interpretation

In information technology, there has been an oversupply of
graduates at diploma level, adequate supply at bachelor's level and
a shortage at postgraduate level.

Table 8: Supply and demand estimates for information technology (2002 – 2006)9
  Supply Demand Supply-Demand
  No. of graduates Occupational growth Retirement Total No. % of employed
Diploma 4,910 -600 -170 -770 5,680 82
Bachelors/honours 5,940 3,510 -180 3,330 2,610 19
Masters/doctorate 420 470 30 500 -80 -4
See appendix 2 for interpretation

There is also evidence of a shortage of graduates with qualifications at bachelor's level and above in accountancy.

From 2002 to 2006, around 2,000 people a year graduated with bachelor’s degrees in the area of finance and sales and about 250 to 300 with diplomas. The model suggests that there could be a shortage of people with diplomas in finance and sales. However, this is more than made up for by a strong supply of people with bachelor's degrees.

Increasing the number of Pacific peoples graduating with advanced trade, technical and professional qualifications in areas of growth will ensure strong employment opportunities with a high level of associated benefits. A particular area of unmet demand is diplomas in engineering (technicians).

Key messages  

Currently Pacific peoples are over-represented in occupations that are projected to have low future growth (eg, trades workers) and under-represented in occupations with high growth (professionals).

Where they are in occupational areas with high future growth, such as the service sector, they tend to be over-represented in the low-skilled, low-paid parts of those sectors. While these areas are predicted to grow, the over-representation of Pacific peoples in low-skilled areas is neither equitable for Pacific communities nor good for the social wellbeing of New Zealand as a whole.

On the positive side, Pacific peoples are located primarily in Auckland and Wellington, both of which have industries with high projected growth.

Demand is strongest for advanced trade, technical and professional qualifications. Engineering and related technologies, and architecture and building have consistent unmet demand for qualifications at diploma level and above. This is particularly marked for civil engineering and across industrial, manufacturing and mechanical engineering and technology, as well as for engineering technicians. Specialised managers and business professionals are two occupational groups with high future demand where Pacific peoples are not currently well represented (although they are now studying in these areas at higher rates).

The industry sector with the best future prospects in terms of growth is the services sector. Within that sector, the area with the best returns is likely to be business services and management where Pacific peoples are under-represented, rather than care provision where Pacific peoples are highly represented.

The occupational group with the highest returns and highest forecast growth is professionals. Again, Pacifi c peoples are underrepresented in this occupational group.

While teaching is not forecast to be a high growth area, there is likely to be high demand for Pacific teachers and principals due to the increasing proportion of Pacific children in the New Zealand population, particularly in Auckland.

There are two aspects to improving future employment prospects for Pacific peoples:

Key to both of these is good choices and success within the education system.

 

5 http://www.berl.co.nz/873a1.page
6 Source: Department of Labour estimates and forecasts
7 This section has been drawn from Earle, D. (2009). Advanced trade, technical and professional qualifications – trends in supply. Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis and Reporting team. Wellington: Ministry of Education. Downloaded from http://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/publications/tertiary_education/47719
8 The occupational reference group for certifi cates is electricians, metal and machinery trades workers, precision trades workers, other craft and related trades workers (except food and related products processing) and industrial plant operators. The occupational reference group for diplomas is engineering technicians. The occupational reference group for bachelors, masters and doctorates is engineering professionals.
9 The occupational reference group for diplomas is computer equipment controllers. The occupational reference group for bachelors, masters and doctorates is computing professionals.

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